A new and improved model for the Ohio primary

So I’ve decided to make my predictions for the Ohio primary on March 4th. I’ve also posted this as “redvolution” over at Daily Kos. Feel free to comment on this here or there.

I’m going to lead with the conclusion: I’m predicting a narrow, 47-45 delegate victory for Clinton that is within the margin of error.

I previously made (rough) predictions for the delagates in Ohio, based off of the regional cross-tabs in sUSA’s older Ohio primary poll. In the comments, I received some constructive criticism that suggested I got district 11 (amongst other things) wrong, due to my use of regional cross-tabs that were too coarse to catch things like the majority African-American population in that district. So, here’s my second attempt at this, using yesterday’s sUSA Presidential primary poll for Ohio. Thus, this projection has new data and an improved method (thus the title of the diary)…

A Super Tuesday model

Here are my predictions for what will happen on Super Tuesday…

Context for the 2008 primaries: a changing political landscape

This post is more in line with what you can expect the other diaries on this blog to look like. Here, I’m going to talk a little bit about the context the 2008 Presidential primaries are taking place in. This post focuses on the recent history of the Republican party, a group that has dominated the modern political landscape but suddenly finds itself in a fractured state. The conservative movement that started in the 1960’s and accelerated in the 1980’s took firm control of Republican party in the 1990’s and the country as a whole in the early 2000’s. In 2004, the Republicans enjoyed a majority in both houses of Congress, earned George W. Bush a second term in office (with clear victories in both electoral and popular vote tallies) and had started shifting the Supreme Court to the right. On the backbone of incredible patience, resolve, and talent, they finally had the right-wing majority they had been working towards for over 4 decades.

Hello world!

C This is an example of a FORTRAN code, which is the computer language I
C use in my models of the Archean Earth's atmosphere. Those "C's" at the
C left mark these lines as "comment lines," which are used to explain
C the code to users, and are ignored by the computer when compiling
C and running the code. While I normally won't be putting FORTRAN code
C on this website, I thought it was relevant for the first post on this
C site, for two reasons. First, "Hello World!" is the default title of
C the first post on a WordPress page, and is also the first program most
C people learn to write when learning a new computer language. The
C main point of this blog is to show people how modeling and the
C scientific method can be used to analyze things in varying aspects of
C life and society. Because I have a particular love for politics and
C sports, I'll use examples from those areas a LOT. Given my dorky
C nature, I though a "Hello world!" program was an appropriate start.
C But enough jibber-jabber... Here is a an example of a FORTRAN code
C that will get your computer to say: "Hello world!"