Baseball Models I – PECOTA

I’m currently taking a break from debugging my code (if you think its surprising i’m taking a break from work at 3:00 AM, you probably don’t know me very well), frankly because i’ve reached the point where i’m out of ideas on what could be wrong with the code and need to stop thinking about it for a while. (Is there such a thing as coders block?) So, i’m going to take the caffeine-induced late night work session to write a little bit about baseball, something i’ve been meaning to do for a while. I’m in the process of collecting different projection systems for the 2007 baseball season for the purposes of combining them in a simple, yet quantitative way that combines the best aspects of each system. For those that are interested in how these projections are done, i’m going to describe the one’s i’m going to use, ending with a description of my aggregate projection model. (Which doens’t have a name yet, so if you’ve got any bright ideas, send them my way.) Today’s post is on PECOTA…

Bush, the Olympics, and the 2008 Election

I’ll get to the Democratic primaries eventually (i promise!), but tonight i wanted to quickly jot down a thought that’s been simmering in my brain the last few days and that just started to boil over, related to how the public perception of Bush may change over the next month.

Hindsight Advice for the 2008 Republican Primary

So, a looooong time ago I promised to give some strategic advice on who people should be advocating in the primaries. I got a little LOT sidetracked by actively campaigning in the primaries, finishing my work at Penn State, packing up my things, moving to Seattle, and unpacking my things. I’m settled in now and have a little more time to write. Unfortunately, I’m now writing long after the primaries were settled. I’m still going to deliver on what I promised oh so long ago, and give my opinions on who the various parties should have nominated this year. I’m going to start with the Republicans…