I’ll get to the Democratic primaries eventually (i promise!), but tonight i wanted to quickly jot down a thought that’s been simmering in my brain the last few days and that just started to boil over, related to how the public perception of Bush may change over the next month.

The guys at 538 have remarked on the unprecedented ad buys the Obama and McCain campaigns made for the olympics, but i think the bigger American political story will be an uptick in Bush’s numbers. I should note that this flies in the face of those who think Bush’s boredom at the Opening Ceremonies reinforces his image of being aloof, arrogant, and ignorant of his duties as our nation’s figurehead. I don’t think that perception is going to take hold in many new people at this point: if you have that reaction to Bush, you’ve probably been having that reaction to him for a while now. However, there’s room for growth in his positive numbers, and now that the artsy stuff is over and the games have started, the dude is completely in his element. He has come across as genuinely engaged in the action in/on the field/court/pool/whatever, has elicited positive remarks from a bevvy of athletes, and the whole event plays right into his pro-America-we’re-the-best wheelhouse. I thought he was coming across well, but that it wasn’t going to be that significant in the long run because he also may be viewed as a lame duck President that’s just on vacation watching his favorite sports team (“Mighty ‘Merica”).

But that opinion changed about 15 minutes ago, when i saw him interviewed by Bob Costas. I expected a complete fluff-piece interview, that was all about the favorite sports viewing experiences of the first family and the amazing culture on display at the opening ceremonies. That’s where the interview started, but Costas quickly changed direction and asked Bush a series of issues-oriented questions (all related to the Olympics) about China’s human rights issues, the Russia-Georgia dispute (which Bush had been discussing with Vladimir Putin during the opening ceremonies), the relative places of the U.S. and China in the world, and the importance of making sure athletes are clean and steroid free. It wasn’t a Tim Russert-style, hard-hitting interview, but the issues were there. And my first impression was that Bush came across as relaxed, confident, and even thoughtful in his replies to the questions. As our nation’s leader and primary diplomat, he also came across as subtle, savvy, and strong had something more complex than a black/white view of all foreign policy relationships. He even seemed to win over Costas, a man who has previously said, “It is sad to say, this is a tragically failed administration. That is to me an inescapable fact.” Its by far the best i’ve seen Bush come across in a long time, and i think the reason is that he hasn’t been had a good excuse to go “YEA, AMERICA!” since the middle of his 2nd term. The country hasn’t seen this side of him in years, and i think seeing it again will remind some people why they voted for him four years ago, and should soften the negative sentiments others have for him.

Given his approval ratings going into the Olympics, i never thought i’d say this: the more camera time Bush gets during the games, the better it will be for him, McCain, and the Republican party. Every time he is seen cheering on the U.S. athletes, people will get positive vibes from the image. That can only help his ratings, and as they go up, so should the public opinions of McCain and the rest of the Republican party. I don’t think this will prevent Obama and the Democrats from throwing the “third Bush term” attack McCain’s way, but i do think it will blunt that attack for the next couple weeks (fortunately for the Obama campaign, they’ve wisely decided to avoid attack ads during olympic coverage). The Republicans should try to turn all this into momentum going into the conventions (they will be held right after the games conclude), by pushing the “We’ve always loved America; America loves us back again!” motif, even if none of the top-line numbers climb over 50%.

Combine all this with Newsweek’s cover article by Fareed Zakaria entiteled “What Bush Got Right,” and the likelyhood of a resurgence in Bush’s numbers becomes more certain (hat tip to Bellweather Meltdown at Another Cubs Blog for pointing me to the article). My guess is you’ll also see McCain’s numbers rise with them. If McCain gets above 45 points before the conventions begin, he can thank Bush’s cheerleading and the Newsweek article for the lift in the polls. Call it the “Beijing Bump.”

Or, maybe i’m just excited at the opportunity to discuss sports and politics at the same time…

For those interested, here’s the video: