This is my prediction for Tuesday: 393 electoral votes for Obama, 59 Senators in the Dem caucus, and the GA senate race goes to a runoff. I’ve got the Kerry states + IA, CO, NM, VA, NC, MO, IN, OH, FL, NV, GA and ND going to Obama. I’ve got the Dems’ picking up 7 senate seats: one each in NH, CO, NM, OR, NC, VA… and MN (although I’m more uncertain about the MN Senate race than any other state-wide race this year). I think the GA senate seat will go to a runoff, as none of the candidates will get over 50% of the vote. The TV yapping heads and political junkies will love this as we all spend the next few months learning all about the power of the filibuster. For a more detailed viewers’ guide, check below the fold….Alll times are EST, and subject to late-closing polls preventing the networks from calling things when i see it happening… not to mention that i’m inevitably going to be horribly wrong when as detailed a prediction as this:

At 7 PM, the polls will be fully closed in IN, KY, GA, SC, VT, and VA. KY will be called immediately for McCain, giving him an early lead in electoral votes. But any joy he gets from that will be tempered by the fact that SC, GA, and IN won’t be called yet. Obama will get his first electoral votes from VT, which will be called immediately. SC will be called by 7:30, but not immediately, and that will be a bad omen for McCain supporters. IN and GA will be called much, much later (for Obama, I think).

At 7:30, the polls will close in OH, WV, and NC. None will be called, which overall spells more bad news for McCain.

At 8, the first swing states will close their polls. McCain will increase the number of states in his column, as TX, OK, MS, AL, and TN are all called quickly for him. But this is where Obama picks up his first lead as IL, MI, and most of the states in New England are called in rapid succession for Obama. More importantly, NH and MI, will be called for Obama within the first 30 minutes of polls being closed there – signs that Obama is in for a very big night. Better still, sometime between 8:30 and 9, VA and PA will be called for Obama, and the media will start talking about the narrowing paths to victory for McCain.

At 9 PM, Obama’s victory will be all but certain. He’ll add MN, WI, and CO to his column within 15 minutes of the polls closing (CO will come in almost immediately). That will give him 193 electoral votes, well short of 270… However, there will be 77 electoral votes in CA, WA, OR, and HI that won’t really be in doubt. Adding those to his total would give him 270. At this point, everyone will be waiting for the polls to close on the West Coast to make the call for Obama “official.”

Quick aside: Between 9 and 11 PM, the networks will have a difficult decision to make: there will likely be enough information at that point to call IA, NM, OH, FL, and probably even IN and NC for Obama… but doing so could mean calling the whole election for Obama before polls close on the West Coast. I don’t think they’ll do this, for a number of reasons. They won’t want to be accused of suppressing the vote on the West Coast, they’ll have eyeballs glued to the set, and it will allow everyone to plan for the big moment. Lots of random states may be called, and then…

11 PM. The polls close in CA, WA, and OR. The closest of these states will be WA. CA and OR will be called immediately for Obama, and a few minutes later (if that) WA will follow suit. Adding those 3 states to Obama’s column will give him enough total electoral votes to be the 44th president of the United States of America. Even in my “worst-case” scenario, I have Obama with 271 electoral votes at this point in the evening.

You heard it here first. Get your champagne bottles and crying towels ready for 11:00 PM EST. That’s when this 2-year long campaign will finally come to a close.

Here’s a map of the poll closing times from Swing State Project, on which my prediction of the timing of things is based.

This is my prediction. I know its wild, but that’s what I’m seeing in the numbers at the moment.