I’ve been busy with work for a while, but finally carved out some time this weekend to finish my first ever rigorous baseball projections. I don’t have time to write up my methodology at the moment (that’ll come soon), but I wanted to post the numbers before the first pitch of opening day. If you really want an explanation, here’s the brief story: I took four other forecasting models (links redirect to the sites containing the systems): Chone, PECOTA, Marcel, and ZIPS, measured their ability to predict statistics for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and calculated a weighted average of their 2009 forecasts with weights applied according to the past accuracy of each model. In the great history of naming forecasting systems after mediocre infielders, I’ve named this system after my favorite player as a kid – Shawon Dunston. (This also yields the fun sentences such as “Two forecasting models are Sean’s Chone and Shawn’s Shawon.”) I owe a great deal – the entire model, in fact – to the others out there providing these great forecasting models to the public. I also want to say that there are other excellent projection models out there, and I plan to incorporate many of those in the future. But I need past data, and this year’s forecast is a bit of an experiment. I’ll certainly add more forecasting systems in future years. For example, if I do this again, one thing I will defiitely add are Tom Tango’s community (of fans) forecasts. But I didn’t have the right data on hand to do this for 2009. So if you’re into baseball, go to his site and enter your predictions for the 2009 season!
So, without further ado I give you the 2009 Shawon’s for hitters, free (as in beer). (Note: I *only* project hitters at this point. I’m not sure if I’ll get around to forecasting pitchers this year.) If something looks awry, I’ve probably made a mistake somewhere. If you want a projection for a particular player not on the list, just let me know and I’ll see if the projection is missing due to a lack of other model forecasts or due to a database error on my end.
Enjoy! (… and remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.)
