Learning Curve

The questions of an inquisitive mind
split it and sprawl it in diffusive wind,
on paths indented with so many prints
of varied feet that are the only hints

that these paths might unite like rivers do,
and bring together all i ever knew.
But where they seem to meet has been the same
spot of the start of the chase of the game.

Yet this approach is but asymptote,
and now the path is not river nor moat
and is undefinable as the love
needed to seek out the questions above.

          For focusing on the end of the quest
          will keep mind and body
shackled from rest.

Models4Life… now with poetry!

While cleaning my apartment today. I came across some poems I wrote while in college. I’ll post some of them from time to time, as I’ve been too busy to generate new content.

Shawon 2009 forecasts

I’ve been busy with work for a while, but finally carved out some time this weekend to finish my first ever rigorous baseball projections. I don’t have time to write up my methodology at the moment (that’ll come soon), but I wanted to post the numbers before the first pitch of opening day. If you really want an explanation, here’s the brief story: I took four other forecasting models (links redirect to the sites containing the systems): Chone, PECOTA, Marcel, and ZIPS, measured their ability to predict statistics for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and calculated a weighted average of their 2009 forecasts with weights applied according to the past accuracy of each model.  In the great history of naming forecasting systems after mediocre infielders, I’ve named this system after my favorite player as a kid – Shawon Dunston. (This also yields the fun sentences such as “Two forecasting models are Sean’s Chone and Shawn’s Shawon.”) I owe a great deal – the entire model, in fact – to the others out there providing these great forecasting models to the public. I also want to say that there are other excellent projection models out there, and I plan to incorporate many of those in the future. But I need past data, and this year’s forecast is a bit of an experiment. I’ll certainly add more forecasting systems in future years. For example, if I do this again, one thing I will defiitely add are Tom Tango’s community (of fans) forecasts. But I didn’t have the right data on hand to do this for 2009. So if you’re into baseball, go to his site and enter your predictions for the 2009 season!

So, without further ado I give you the 2009 Shawon’s for hitters, free (as in beer). (Note: I *only* project hitters at this point. I’m not sure if I’ll get around to forecasting pitchers this year.) If something looks awry, I’ve probably made a mistake somewhere. If you want a projection for a particular player not on the list, just let me know and  I’ll see if the projection is missing due to a lack of other model forecasts or due to a database error on my end.

Enjoy! (… and remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.)

My final election projection

This is my prediction for Tuesday: 393 electoral votes for Obama, 59 Senators in the Dem caucus, and the GA senate race goes to a runoff. I’ve got the Kerry states + IA, CO, NM, VA, NC, MO, IN, OH, FL, NV, GA and ND going to Obama. I’ve got the Dems’ picking up 7 senate seats: one each in NH, CO, NM, OR, NC, VA… and MN (although I’m more uncertain about the MN Senate race than any other state-wide race this year). I think the GA senate seat will go to a runoff, as none of the candidates will get over 50% of the vote. The TV yapping heads and political junkies will love this as we all spend the next few months learning all about the power of the filibuster. For a more detailed viewers’ guide, check below the fold….

The 10th Inning (Baseball as a Model for Life)

Ken Burns, acclaimed documentarian, once made a defining series of documentaries about baseball, entitled “Baseball.” The main thesis behind this work was that baseball stood as a mirror for the United States of America. The documentary shows how the sport tracked the nation, from its founding on American soil, through two World Wars, and all the way up through the economic battles of the late 20th century. There were 9 innings to Burns’s documentary, the last of which brought baseball and America up to the early 1990’s.

Burns apparently has plans to extend his documentary past the to today, and I think the thesis fits the last 15 years; the era in baseball that most consider to span this time – the Steriod Era – also has important parallels to and lessons for present-day America as both the country and its pasttime recover from a period of short-sightedness at both the individual and societal level.

52,560,000 minutes

I am a Cubs fan,

model of innocent hopes

broken, crushed, and dead

20/20 Hindsight on the Democratic Convention

Here are my long-promised thoughts on the democratic convention. This is going to seem a bit like 20/20 hindsight, but i promise i held all these beliefs before Obama’s rise in the polls the last month. I believe now, as I did during the primaires, that Obama is the perfect candidate for the Democrats at this point in time, both for the short- and long-scale strategies of the Democratic party.

Baseball Models I – PECOTA

I’m currently taking a break from debugging my code (if you think its surprising i’m taking a break from work at 3:00 AM, you probably don’t know me very well), frankly because i’ve reached the point where i’m out of ideas on what could be wrong with the code and need to stop thinking about it for a while. (Is there such a thing as coders block?) So, i’m going to take the caffeine-induced late night work session to write a little bit about baseball, something i’ve been meaning to do for a while. I’m in the process of collecting different projection systems for the 2007 baseball season for the purposes of combining them in a simple, yet quantitative way that combines the best aspects of each system. For those that are interested in how these projections are done, i’m going to describe the one’s i’m going to use, ending with a description of my aggregate projection model. (Which doens’t have a name yet, so if you’ve got any bright ideas, send them my way.) Today’s post is on PECOTA…

Bush, the Olympics, and the 2008 Election

I’ll get to the Democratic primaries eventually (i promise!), but tonight i wanted to quickly jot down a thought that’s been simmering in my brain the last few days and that just started to boil over, related to how the public perception of Bush may change over the next month.

Hindsight Advice for the 2008 Republican Primary

So, a looooong time ago I promised to give some strategic advice on who people should be advocating in the primaries. I got a little LOT sidetracked by actively campaigning in the primaries, finishing my work at Penn State, packing up my things, moving to Seattle, and unpacking my things. I’m settled in now and have a little more time to write. Unfortunately, I’m now writing long after the primaries were settled. I’m still going to deliver on what I promised oh so long ago, and give my opinions on who the various parties should have nominated this year. I’m going to start with the Republicans…